Return-Path: X-Original-To: mgrant132@cogeco.ca Delivered-To: mgrant132@cogeco.ca Received: from bayc1-pasmtp01.bayc1.hotmail.com (bayc1-pasmtp01.bayc1.hotmail.com [65.54.191.161]) by fep9.cogeco.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 743226628 for ; Wed, 8 Nov 2006 07:09:37 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: X-Originating-IP: [64.231.62.24] X-Originating-Email: [gchudy@sympatico.ca] Received: from yourf78bf48ce2 ([64.231.62.24]) by bayc1-pasmtp01.bayc1.hotmail.com over TLS secured channel with Microsoft SMTPSVC(6.0.3790.1830); Wed, 8 Nov 2006 04:09:36 -0800 Message-ID: <006b01c7032e$c190a6d0$0b02a8c0@yourf78bf48ce2> From: "carol chudy" To: "carol & greg chudy" , "paul serruys" , "winston sardine" , "BROOKS Bill -LAMBTON" , "dale lane" , "mark and susan grant" , "Tom Hughes" , "doug miller" , "grant church" Subject: Date: Wed, 8 Nov 2006 07:09:33 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="multipart/alternative"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0067_01C70304.D77B4100" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.2869 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2962 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Nov 2006 12:09:36.0838 (UTC) FILETIME=[C268DE60:01C7032E] This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0067_01C70304.D77B4100 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0068_01C70304.D77B4100" ------=_NextPart_001_0068_01C70304.D77B4100 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 The Times November 08, 2006=20 Watchdog warns of one energy crisis after another By Carl Mortished, International Business Editor =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 The world will lurch from one energy crisis to another = unless governments switch from increased burning of fossil fuels to more = nuclear, renewable and energy-saving sources, the Western world's energy = watchdog said.=20 In a landmark report published yesterday, the = International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast skyrocketing fuel prices, = blackouts and supply disruptions as it pointed to a 50 per cent surge in = energy demand by 2030.=20 Chinese and Indian economic growth will propel global = oil demand from 84 million barrels per day to 116 million bpd by 2030 = with most of the increased supply coming from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and = Iran. Non-Opec oil supplies will peak in the beginning of the next = decade, reckons the IEA, raising the risk of supply disruptions which = could push the crude price as high as $130 per barrel.=20 Carbon emissions are set to soar by more than 55 per = cent over the period, accelerating the process of climate change. In a = striking change to previous forecasts, the IEA predicted that coal is = coming back, driven by the high cost of natural gas and the huge = reserves of coal in the United States, China and India.=20 "The biggest increase in energy use will come from = coal," Fatih Birol, the agency's chief economist, said. "One of the = consequences is CO2 will grow faster than energy demand, due to = increasing coal use and declining nuclear share."=20 In its report, World Energy Outlook 2006, the IEA = offered a choice of two scenarios. In its reference case, the agency = paints a picture of soaring demand and increasing risk of supply = disruptions as dependence rises on a diminishing number of gas and oil = suppliers.=20 "This energy scenario is not only unsustainable but = doomed to failure," said Claude Mandil, head of the IEA.=20 The IEA describes an alternative scenario in which = global energy demand is reduced by 10 per cent by 2030, oil demand = reaches 103 million bpd and OECD carbon emissions peak around 2015.=20 More efficient energy production and consumption would = account for 80 per cent of the avoided emissions, says the IEA. For the = first time, the agency recommends the nuclear option but states that = "this will happen only if the governments . . . play a stronger role in = facilitating private investment".=20 The IEA chief said that the alternative policies are = cost-effective, despite considerable upfront costs. The production of = nuclear power is cheaper than gas-fired power generation at equivalent = oil prices of $40, he said.=20 In a stark reminder of the risks, Mr Mandil pointed to = the need to invest $20 trillion to meet rising demand for energy. "It is = far from certain that this investment will actually occur," said Mr = Mandil. The apparent soaring investment by oil companies was illusory, = he said, because of inflation in drilling costs.=20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 ------=_NextPart_001_0068_01C70304.D77B4100 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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The=20 Times November 08,=20 2006

Watchdog warns of one energy crisis after=20 another

By Carl Mortished,=20 International Business=20 Editor
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The world will lurch from one energy crisis to = another=20 unless governments switch from increased burning of = fossil=20 fuels to more nuclear, renewable and energy-saving = sources,=20 the Western world=92s energy watchdog said.=20

In a landmark report published yesterday, the = International=20 Energy Agency (IEA) forecast skyrocketing fuel prices, = blackouts and supply disruptions as it pointed to a 50 = per=20 cent surge in energy demand by 2030.=20

Chinese and Indian economic growth will propel = global oil=20 demand from 84 million barrels per day to 116 million = bpd by=20 2030 with most of the increased supply coming from = Saudi=20 Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Non-Opec oil supplies will peak = in the=20 beginning of the next decade, reckons the IEA, raising = the=20 risk of supply disruptions which could push the crude = price as=20 high as $130 per barrel.=20

Carbon emissions are set to soar by more than 55 = per cent=20 over the period, accelerating the process of climate = change.=20 In a striking change to previous forecasts, the IEA = predicted=20 that coal is coming back, driven by the high cost of = natural=20 gas and the huge reserves of coal in the United = States, China=20 and India.=20

=93The biggest increase in energy use will come = from coal,=94=20 Fatih Birol, the agency=92s chief economist, said. = =93One of the=20 consequences is CO2 will grow faster than energy = demand, due=20 to increasing coal use and declining nuclear share.=94 =

In its report, World Energy Outlook 2006, = the IEA=20 offered a choice of two scenarios. In its reference = case, the=20 agency paints a picture of soaring demand and = increasing risk=20 of supply disruptions as dependence rises on a = diminishing=20 number of gas and oil suppliers.=20

=93This energy scenario is not only unsustainable = but doomed=20 to failure,=94 said Claude Mandil, head of the IEA.=20

The IEA describes an alternative scenario in which = global=20 energy demand is reduced by 10 per cent by 2030, oil = demand=20 reaches 103 million bpd and OECD carbon emissions peak = around=20 2015.=20

More efficient energy production and consumption = would=20 account for 80 per cent of the avoided emissions, says = the=20 IEA. For the first time, the agency recommends the = nuclear=20 option but states that =93this will happen only if the = governments . . . play a stronger role in facilitating = private=20 investment=94.=20

The IEA chief said that the alternative policies = are=20 cost-effective, despite considerable upfront costs. = The=20 production of nuclear power is cheaper than gas-fired = power=20 generation at equivalent oil prices of $40, he said.=20

In a stark reminder of the risks, Mr Mandil pointed = to the=20 need to invest $20 trillion to meet rising demand for = energy.=20 =93It is far from certain that this investment will = actually=20 occur,=94 said Mr Mandil. The apparent soaring = investment by oil=20 companies was illusory, he said, because of = inflation in=20 drilling costs. =

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