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CAE Alliance

Can you see the difference?

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MEDIA ADVISORY

PRESENTATION/DVD RELEASE

November 13, 2006

 

 

Will Ontario have a clean, affordable and reliable supply of electricity in the years to come?

 

This is the mandate of the Ministry of Energy, but the CAE Alliance has deep concerns about the target supply mix resources prescribed by the Minister.  Negligible environmental gains will not justify the significant impact on our economy.  The CAE Alliance wants to set the record straight on emissions, resources and power system reliability.

 

WHEN:                                  Wednesday, November 15, 2006

                                                11:00 a.m.

 

WHERE:                                Queen’s Park

                                                Media Room

 

PRESENTATION:                 Keith Simpson

                                                Thomas Hughes

                                                Doug Miller

                                                Carol Chudy

 

CONTACT:                            CAE Alliance

                                                (519) 862-9296

                                                caealliance@sympatico.ca

 

Media Package including DVD will be available for Media Representatives

Listed below is the press package that we presented at Queens Park

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

Will Ontario have a clean, affordable and reliable supply of electricity in the years to come?

 

This is the mandate of the Ministry of Energy, but the CAE Alliance has deep concerns about the target supply mix resources prescribed by the Minister.  Negligible environmental gains will not justify the significant and detrimental impact on our economy. 

 

6,500 MW of coal fired generation – affordable, reliable, the stability in the power grid - is slated for removal from the system.   This will cause vulnerability in the power grid.

 

A full cost and environmental analysis of the decision to close the coal fired generating stations has never been made.  It is based on a misrepresentation of information.

 

Thermal generation is responsible for less than 7% of Ontario’s air pollution and acid rain emissions.

 

Those emissions can readily and cost effectively be reduced to 1%, comparable to natural gas.

 

The Ontario Power Authority confirms that a “substantial amount” of gas fired generation “will, in effect, replace coal-fired generation in Ontario” (over 6,200 MW of new projects).  The cost of this, to Ontario tax and rate payers, will be huge! 

 

All credible energy and government agencies confirm that North American natural gas is depleting.  Demand has outpaced supply.

 

The Ontario Power Authority confirms that natural gas prices are expected to rise by 2017 “due to depletion of conventional gas resources in the Western basin”.  “More than 95% of the gas consumed in Ontario comes from outside the province, mostly from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.”

 

When life cycle emissions are considered, natural gas may well be worse in terms of global warming potential.

 

The amount of gas needed to replace coal fired generation on a daily basis will exceed what Ontario currently uses to heat our homes, causing billions of dollars in infrastructure costs to accommodate this.  Electricity will be generated at 2-3 times the cost. 

 

The switch from coal to natural gas fired generation is unaffordable, unwise and unnecessary!

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE COAL CLOSURE MANDATE

 

Foundational for power system planning is the advice to “Ensure that the relative cost of different energy sources, fiscal implications, energy security, impact on job creation, export development and the provincial economy were all considered.”  (The Select Committee on Alternative Fuels, Final Report)

Removal of Coal which sets market price about 50% of the time, at less than the price of natural gas.

 

Natural Gas at 2-3 times the cost will likely set market price 

 

The average cost per unit of energy was over 3 times higher for natural gas than coal, over the 2002-2005 period.  (US Energy Information Administration)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


High volumes of natural gas used will impact the price for industry, agriculture, home heating as they compete for this diminishing resource

 

High infrastructure costs for increased natural gas storage and delivery  ($7-10 billion minimum)

 

Natural gas prices are expected to remain high and volatile

 

Privately owned, “for-profit” power generation is always more expensive – greater risk to the public - Bonuses paid to gas fired merchant generator power companies -  huge tax breaks

 

Lower priced coal generation (3.8 cents/kwh) would help offset the high cost of 8,000 MW of renewable power at  $0.11 – 0.42/kwh

 

Refurbishment of coal fired units “are assumed to take one year … $205 million per unit”.  (Navigant Consulting – Report to the OPA)

 

Premature retirement of publicly owned, paid-for assets, including upgrade costs already spent to install emissions reduction equipment on some units – a waste of taxpayers money

 

The economic drivers of Ontario (industry, business, the farming community) are warning of the consequences of higher energy rates, the closure of the coal fired plants, and the use of natural gas for electricity. Ontario’s GDP will decrease by 1.2% to 2.0%, $6 to $10 billion depending upon the magnitude of the electricity price increase (AMPCO). The Ontario Chamber of Commerce, representing 57,000 businesses in the Province, passed resolutions at their annual meeting affirming the need to retrofit and maintain the coal plants in Ontario.   Why are these warnings not heeded?

Removal of Coal which sets market price about 50% of the time, at less than the price of natural gas.

 

Natural Gas at 2-3 times the cost will likely set market price

 

The average cost per unit of energy was over 3 times higher for natural gas than coal, over the 2002-2005 period.  (US Energy Information Administration)

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